SSM_validation

Just like any other statistical model fitting exercise, validating SSM fits to tracking data is an essential part of any analysis. SSM fits can be visualized quickly using the generic plot function on model fit objects:

fit.rw <- fit_ssm(ellie, 
                  model = "rw", 
                  time.step = 24, 
                  control = ssm_control(verbose = 0))

plot(fit.rw, what = "fitted")

plot(fit.rw, what = "predicted")

Both fitted and predicted locations (gold) can be plotted as 1-D time-series on top of the observations (blue) to visually detect any lack of fit. Observations that failed to pass the prefilter stage prior to SSM fitting (black x’s) can be included (default) or omitted with the outlier argument. Uncertainty is displayed as a ± 2 SE envelope (pale gold) around estimates. A rug plot along the x-axis aids detection of data gaps in the time-series. Note, in second plot, the larger standard errors for predicted locations through small data gaps.

The SSM fits can also be visualised as 2-D tracks via the type argument:

plot(fit.rw, "p", type = 2, alpha = 0.1)

This option provides an intuitive view of the estimated track (gold) through the observations (blue), along with a 2-dimensional representation of the location uncertainty (pale gold 95% confidence ellipses). Here, we use the alpha argument to increase the transparency of the confidence ellipses to aid visualization in regions where many overlay one another (upper left and lower right in figure).

Residual plots are important for validating models, but classical Pearson residuals, for example, are not appropriate for state-space models. Instead, a one-step-ahead prediction residual, provides a useful if computationally demanding alternative. In aniMotum, prediction residuals from state-space model fits are calculated using the osar function and can be visualized as time-series plots, Q-Q plots, or autocorrelation functions:

# use patchwork package to arrange plot.osar options
require(patchwork)
# calculate & plot residuals
res.rw <- osar(fit.rw)

(plot(res.rw, type = "ts") | plot(res.rw, type = "qq")) / 
  (plot(res.rw, type = "acf") | plot_spacer())

Here, the 3 residual plots highlight a poor fit of the rw SSM to the x-coordinate. The time-series residual plot implies a bias in the rw SSM fit over the latter half of the track, the Q-Q plot highlights a distinct departure from normality in the x residuals, and the x residuals are positively autocorrelated up to about lag 5.

Fitting the crw SSM to the same data, we can see the prediction residual plots imply a less biased fit with approximately normal residuals that have little autocorrelation in both coordinates.

fit.crw <- fit_ssm(ellie, 
                   model = "crw", 
                   time.step = 24, 
                   control = ssm_control(verbose = 0))

res.crw <- osar(fit.crw)

(plot(res.crw, type = "ts") | plot(res.crw, type = "qq")) / 
  (plot(res.crw, type = "acf") | plot_spacer())

Additionally, the crw model fit has a lower AIC_c than the rw model. Note that AIC statistics can be misleading for time-series models and should not be used as the sole criterion for preferring one model fit over another. Here, at least, the AIC_c values are in agreement with the prediction residual diagnostics.

c(fit.rw$ssm[[1]]$AICc, fit.crw$ssm[[1]]$AICc)

#> [1] 1329.867 1292.494

As calculation of prediction residuals can be computationally demanding, typically requiring more time than fitting the model, especially for multiple individual tracks, the osar function is automatically implemented in parallel when calculating residuals for more than 2 tracks.

Users wishing to explore residual diagnostics for hierarchical models (including state-space models) should refer to the DHARMa R package, which has more details on diagnostics for hierarchical models. Although aniMotum is not able to make use of the DHARMa package, its vignette and references therein can be a useful guide for diagnosing model fits (Hartig, 2022).